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| 金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药性发展趋势的logistic模型分析 |
| Analysis of the Logistic Model of Ciprofloxacin-resistance Trend of Staphylococcus Aureus |
| 投稿时间：2012-08-01 修订日期：2012-09-04 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 金黄色葡萄球菌 耐药趋势 logistic 模型 |
| 英文关键词:Staphylococcus aureus Drug-resistance trend Logistic model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要 目的：了解我国金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药性的现状和变迁，探讨logistic模型在分析细菌耐药性发展规律中的应用价值。方法：从中国期刊全文数据库收集1991～2007年中国内地金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药数据，同时收集上海地区部分年份金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药率。应用logistic模型对金黄色葡萄球菌的环丙沙星耐药率数据拟合分析，对拟合结果做适合性拟合优度检验。结果：共收集文献637篇，含金黄色葡萄球菌94 971株，其中41 615株对环丙沙星耐药。对logistic模型拟合金黄色葡萄球菌环丙沙星耐药率进行适合性检验，得预测值与实际值基本吻合（P<0.05)。结论：1991～2007年中国内地金黄色葡萄球菌的环丙沙星耐药性遵循logistic模型发展。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| ABSTRACT Objective:To investigate the current situation and vicissitudes in ciprofloxacin-resistance to S.aureus and probe for the application value of the logistic model in analyzing the developing trend of drug-resistance of bacteria. Methods:The data of ciprofloxacin-resistance to S.aureus were collected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) published during 1991 2007 years and the data in some years from Shanghai area. The data of ciprofloxacin-resistance to S.aureus were fitted by the logistic model and then the results were evaluated by suitable χf or goodness of fit test. Results: 94 971 strains of S.aureus from 637 papers collected were contained. In those strains, 41 615 were ciprofloxacin-resistant strains. The logistic model was used to analyze their goodness of fit test, and it could make predicted values accord with acbual values. Conclusion:The ciprofloxacin-resistance of S.aureus in the years of 1991 to 2007 followed its development showed in the logistic model. |
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